Closing the Gap

Students achieve their full learning potential

5
Students achieve their full learning potential

Outcome

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students achieve their full learning potential.

Target

By 2031, increase the proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people (age 20-24) attaining year 12 or equivalent qualification to 96 per cent.

Summary on Target

Target: By 2031, increase the proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students (age 20–24) attaining year 12 or equivalent qualification to 96 per cent.
Domain: Education
Outcome: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students achieve their full learning potential.
Numerator: Number of Indigenous Australians aged 20–24, who have attained a school qualification of Year 12 or equivalent, or attained a non-school qualification at Certificate level III or above based on the Australian Qualifications Framework.
Denominator: Number of Indigenous Australians aged 20–24.
Computation: 100 x (numerator ÷ denominator)
  • People who had not attained a school qualification of Year 12 or equivalent, and whose highest level of non-school qualification was determined to be certificate level but was not able to be further defined, were assumed to have attained below Certificate level III and were therefore excluded from the numerator.
  • People who did not state if they had a non-school qualification (or whose level of education was inadequately described) and had not completed a school qualification of Year 12 or equivalent, are excluded from the calculation (numerator and denominator). People who did not state their highest year of school completed and did not have a qualification at certificate III level or above are also excluded.
Data source: ABS Census of Population and Housing
Notes: Data also available from ABS Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health Survey and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Social Survey. These data can be used as supplementary data source to monitor progress, particularly in intercensal years.

Prepared by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW).

Baseline data

Baseline data for the target measure is presented below at a national level, and for each state and territory where available. This will show starting points for each target, by jurisdiction.

Table 5.1: Year 12 (or equivalent) attainment, proportion of 20–24 year olds who have attained Year 12 or equivalent non-school qualification(a)(b), 2001–2016(c)(d)(e)

Indigenous %
Year NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS ACT NT Australia(f)
2001 42.5 48.9 50.9 32.2 31.4 44.3 66.2 13.0 39.4
2006 47.9 53.2 56.2 37.4 39.5 54.7 63.1 16.8 45.3
2011 53.5 59.6 60.9 43.4 48.0 54.9 68.3 27.0 51.8
2016 64.3 69.6 69.5 57.4 61.4 62.7 77.4 37.5 63.2
Non-Indigenous %
Year NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS ACT NT Australia(f)
2001 78.1 79.3 78.3 75.5 72.6 64.3 87.6 71.7 77.6
2006 82.8 85.7 83.3 80.8 77.2 73.9 90.6 75.2 82.9
2011 85.1 87.7 85.0 83.7 81.4 76.9 91.1 79.4 85.3
2016 88.4 90.0 88.8 87.6 85.2 79.0 92.9 83.8 88.5

Source

Australian Census of Population and Housing, 2001-2016.

Notes

  1. This table shows the proportion of 20–24 year olds who have completed Year 12 or obtained a Certificate level III or above qualification. Certificate III level or above excludes `Certificate nfd'.
  2. People who did not state if they had a non-school qualification (or whose level of education was inadequately described) and did not have Year 12, are excluded from the calculation (numerator and denominator). People who did not state their highest year of school and did not have a qualification at Certificate III level or above, are also excluded. People that responded not stated or that were inadequately described to both highest year of school and non-school qualification are excluded.
  3. Geographical variables in this table are based on a person's Place of Usual Residence.
  4. This table excludes overseas visitors.
  5. Cells in this table have been randomly adjusted to avoid the release of confidential data. No reliance should be placed on small cells.
  6. Includes Other Territories.

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National Target Trajectory

The national target trajectories presented below reflect the possible rate of progress over the next decade to achieve the target. In practice, the rate of progress is unlikely to be the same from year to year.

The target trajectory can be compared with the two related trajectories: the projected rates of progress for Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians based on the assumption the historic rate of change will continue into the future.

Prepared by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW).

Source

AIHW analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Census of Population and Housing and Survey of Education and Work data.

Summary Table On Trajectory Chart

Line label Line Method/assumptions Annual change (percentage points) 2031 rate (%)
Historical trend: Non-Indigenous rate

Dark red solid
Line dark red

 Percentage of non-Indigenous Australians aged 20–24 with Year 12 or equivalent qualifications, 4 data points (2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016). 0.7 . .
Continuation of historical trend: non-Indigenous

Dark red dashed
Dark blue dashed

 The annual rate of change observed in the ABS Survey of Education and Work (SEW) for all Australians aged 20-24 for the period 2008 to 2019 (12 data points) was determined using linear regression(a). SEW data are collected annually so more data points are available than from the Census. SEW data for Year 12 or equivalent in the 20-24 age group shows up and down fluctuations from year-to-year, so the longer 2008 to 2019 period was chosen instead of a more recent period to estimate the annual average change in Year 12 attainment. This annual change was then applied to the Census data for non-Indigenous Australians. 0.5 96.0
Historical trend: Indigenous rate

Grey blue solid
Grey blue solid

 Percentage of Indigenous Australians aged 20–24 with Year 12 or equivalent qualifications, 4 data points (2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016). 1.6 . .
Continuation of historical trend: Indigenous

Grey blue dashed
Grey blue dashed

 Straight line projection based on linear regression of historical data for Indigenous Australians (using 4 data points)(a). 1.6 85.0
Target trajectory

Orange dashed
Orange dashed

 Straight line projection from 2016 value to the target rate in 2031. 2.2 96.0

. . = not applicable.

  1. Based on a linear regression of historical data. As such, the projection captures drivers of historical growth rates such as population growth or government funding. Doing projections in this manner assumes that the drivers of growth will not vary greatly into the future.

Prepared by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW).

Source

AIHW analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Census of Population and Housing and Survey of Education and Work data.