Closing the Gap

Students reach their full potential through further education pathways

6
Students reach their full potential through further education pathways

Outcome

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students reach their full potential through further education pathways.

Target

By 2031, increase the proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25-34 years who have completed a tertiary qualification (Certificate III and above) to 70 per cent.

Summary on Target

Target: By 2031, increase the proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 25-34 years who have completed a tertiary qualification (Certificate III and above) to 70 per cent.
Domain: Education
Outcome: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students reach their full potential through further education pathways.
Numerator: Number of Indigenous Australians aged 25–34 years whose highest level of educational attainment is Certificate level III or above, based on the Australian Qualifications Framework.
Denominator: Number of Indigenous Australians aged 25–34.
Computation: 100 x (numerator ÷ denominator)
  • People whose highest level of educational attainment was inadequately described or not stated were excluded from both the numerator and denominator.
  • Derived using the Census variable ‘highest level of educational attainment’.
Data source: ABS Census of Population and Housing
Notes: Data also available from ABS Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health Survey and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Social Survey. These data can be used as supplementary data source to monitor progress, particularly in intercensal years.

Prepared by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW).

Baseline data

Baseline data for the target measure is presented below at a national level, and for each state and territory where available. This will show starting points for each target, by jurisdiction.

Table 6.1: Tertiary qualifications, proportion of 25–34 year olds who have attained non-school qualifications of Certificate level III or above(a)(b), 2001–2016(c)(d)(e)

Indigenous %
Year NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS ACT NT Australia(f)
2001 22.0 29.0 19.8 13.6 18.8 25.5 41.0 7.8 18.9
2006 30.1 35.1 27.8 20.0 23.6 33.4 47.4 11.6 25.9
2011 37.9 45.2 33.0 25.4 31.8 39.8 51.6 14.8 32.5
2016 48.3 56.5 42.4 33.8 39.8 47.0 62.1 18.1 42.3
Non-Indigenous %
Year NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS ACT NT Australia(f)
2001 52.7 51.2 44.5 46.8 42.6 39.6 58.3 50.4 49.2
2006 62.5 62.2 55.3 57.7 54.0 50.0 69.2 59.2 59.8
2011 68.4 70.0 62.9 65.0 62.3 58.1 75.2 66.3 66.9
2016 72.9 74.9 68.8 70.3 68.2 64.1 78.3 72.6 72.0

Source

Australian Census of Population and Housing, 2001-2016.

Notes

  1. This table shows the proportion of 25–34 year olds whose highest level of educational attainment is Certificate level III or above, based on the Australian Qualifications Framework.
  2. Persons whose highest level of educational attainment cannot be determined are excluded from the calculation.
  3. Geographical variables in this table are based on a person's Place of Usual Residence.
  4. This table excludes overseas visitors.
  5. Cells in this table have been randomly adjusted to avoid the release of confidential data. No reliance should be placed on small cells.
  6. Includes Other Territories

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National Target Trajectory

The national target trajectories presented below reflect the possible rate of progress over the next decade to achieve the target. In practice, the rate of progress is unlikely to be the same from year to year.

The target trajectory can be compared with the two related trajectories: the projected rates of progress for Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians based on the assumption the historic rate of change will continue into the future.

Prepared by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW).

Source

AIHW analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Census of Population and Housing and Survey of Education and Work data.

Summary Table On Trajectory Chart

Line label Line Method/assumptions Annual change (percentage points) 2031 rate (%)
Historical trend: Non-Indigenous rate

Dark green solid
Dark green solid

Based on percentage of non-Indigenous Australians aged 25–34 with qualifications at certificate III level or above, 4 data points (2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016). 1.5 . .
Continuation of historical trend: non-Indigenous

Dark green dashed
Dark green dashed

The annual rate of change observed in the ABS Survey of Education and Work (SEW) for all Australians aged 25-34 for the period 2015 to 2019 (5 data points) was determined using linear regression(a). SEW data are collected annually, so more data points are available, and should be a reasonable proxy of how the attainment rate for non-Indigenous Australians has changed in recent years. This annual change was then applied to the Census data for non-Indigenous Australians. 0.6 81.0
Historical trend: Indigenous rate

Bright orange solid
Bright orange solid

Percentage Indigenous Australians aged 25–34 with qualifications at certificate III level or above, 4 data points (2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016). 1.5 . .
Continuation of historical trend: Indigenous

Bright orange dashed
Bright orange dashed

Straight line projection based on linear regression of historical data for Indigenous Australians (using 4 data points)(a). 1.5 64.5
Target trajectory

Yellow dashed
Yellow dashed

Straight line projection from 2016 value to the target rate in 2031. 1.8 70.0

. . = not applicable.

  1. Based on a linear regression of historical data. As such, the projection captures drivers of historical growth rates such as population growth or government funding. Doing projections in this manner assumes that the drivers of growth will not vary greatly into the future.

Prepared by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW).

Source

AIHW analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Census of Population and Housing and Survey of Education and Work data.