Closing the Gap

Young people are not overrepresented in the criminal justice system

11
Young people are not overrepresented in the criminal justice system

Outcome

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people are not overrepresented in the criminal justice system.

Target

By 2031, reduce the rate of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people (10-17 years) in detention by 30 per cent.

Summary on Target

Target: By 2031, reduce the rate of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people (10-17 years) in detention by 30 per cent
Domain: Justice
Outcome: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people are not overrepresented in the criminal justice system.
Numerator: Number of Indigenous Australians aged 10–17 that were detained on an average day in the reporting period.
This is calculated by summing the number of days each young person spends in detention during the year and dividing this total by the number of days in the financial year reporting period.
Denominator: Number of Indigenous Australians aged 10–17.
Computation: 10,000 x (numerator ÷ denominator)
  • Data are for unsentenced (remanded in custody) and sentenced (in detention).
  • ABS population estimates and projections (series B) based on the 2016 Census are used as the denominator.
  • Underlying data reported for this target are on financial year basis. For the purpose of the trajectory analysis, data for financial years are matched to a calendar year by selecting the calendar year in which the financial year ends (for example, 1 July 2010 to 30 June 2011 financial year data are treated as being 2011 calendar year data.
Data source: Youth Justice National Minimum Data Set
Notes:
  • For the Northern Territory, data prior to 2012–13 are not available, so estimates are used.
  • Trend data may differ from those previously published due to data revisions.

Prepared by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW).

Baseline data

Baseline data for the target measure is presented below at a national level, and for each state and territory where available. This will show starting points for each target, by jurisdiction.

Table 11.1: Youth detention, rate of young people aged 10–17 in detention on an average day, 2010–11 to 2018–19(a)(b)(c)(d)(e)

Indigenous rate per 10,000 population
Year NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS ACT NT Australia
2010–11 39.0 17.4 22.7 83.4 37.8 13.2 69.0 n.a. 36.9
2011–12 35.6 14.3 24.6 82.2 38.5 n.p. 53.9 n.a. 35.4
2012–13 34.4 9.2 29.5 78.6 33.4 n.p. n.p. 31.3 35.0
2013–14 30.7 11.1 32.5 74.4 35.8 n.p. n.p. 38.6 35.1
2014–15 29.8 15.4 29.4 68.1 34.0 n.p. n.p. 33.7 32.9
2015–16 31.7 19.9 33.6 59.9 42.8 n.p. n.p. 39.3 34.9
2016–17 28.4 21.7 32.4 60.9 42.2 n.p. n.p. 30.6 33.1
2017–18 27.2 20.5 37.0 61.6 37.8 n.p. n.p. 32.5 34.1
2018–19 24.2 18.6 43.0 58.7 29.2 n.p. n.p. 30.4 33.7
Non-Indigenous rate per 10,000 population
Year NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS ACT NT Australia
2010–11 2.4 1.3 1.3 2.2 1.9 3.8 3.7 n.a. 1.9
2011–12 2.1 1.2 1.1 2.7 2.0 3.8 3.7 n.a. 1.8
2012–13 1.8 1.0 1.2 2.3 1.7 3.4 3.2 n.p. 1.6
2013–14 2.0 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.1 2.7 n.p. 1.5
2014–15 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.7 n.p. n.p. 1.4
2015–16 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.5 n.p. 1.5
2016–17 1.6 1.8 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.7 2.3 n.p. 1.5
2017–18 1.8 1.9 1.2 1.8 1.1 1.5 2.5 n.p. 1.6
2018–19 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.6 n.p. n.p. 1.5

Prepared by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW).

Source

AIHW Youth Justice National Minimum Data Set (YJ NMDS)

Notes

  1. 'Australia' data includes estimates for the Northern Territory for 2010–11 and 2011–12.
  2. The Northern Territory did not supply YJ NMDS data for 2010–11 and 2011–12.
  3. Trend data may differ from those previously published due to data revisions.
  4. Rates are number of young people per 10,000 relevant population.
  5. Rates are not published where there were fewer than five young people.

n.a. not available.

n.p. not published due to small numbers, confidentiality, and/or reliability concerns.

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National Target Trajectory

The national target trajectories presented below reflect the possible rate of progress over the next decade to achieve the target. In practice, the rate of progress is unlikely to be the same from year to year.

The target trajectory can be compared with the two related trajectories: the projected rates of progress for Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians based on the assumption the historic rate of change will continue into the future.

Note: Data reported are for financial years, but for the purpose of the trajectory analysis, the financial years are matched to a calendar year by selecting the calendar year in which the financial year ends (for example, 1 July 2010 to 30 June 2011 data are treated as 2011 calendar year data).

Prepared by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW).

Source

AIHW analysis of the Youth Justice National Minimum Dataset (YJ NMDS).

Summary Table On Trajectory Chart

Line label Line Method/assumptions Annual change (percentage points) 2031 rate (%)
Historical trend: Non-Indigenous rate

Red solid
Red solid

Rate of non-Indigenous Australians aged 10–17 in youth detention on an average day (2011 to 2018). -0.04 . .
Continuation of historical trend: Non-Indigenous

Red dashed
Red dashed

Projection based on linear regression of historical rates for non-Indigenous youth (using 8 data points)(a). -0.04 1.0
Historical trend: Indigenous rate

Orange solid
Orange solid

Rate of Indigenous Australians aged 10–17 in youth detention on an average day (2011 to 2018). -0.3 . .
Continuation of historical trend: Indigenous

Orange dashed
Orange dashed

Projection based on linear regression of historical rates for Indigenous youth (using 8 data points)(a). -0.3 29.0
Target trajectory

Light blue dashed
Light blue dashed

Straight line projection from 2019 value to the target rate in 2031. -0.8 23.6

. . = not applicable.

  1. Based on a linear regression of historical data. As such, the projection captures drivers of historical growth rates such as population growth or government funding. Doing projections in this manner assumes that the drivers of growth will not vary greatly into the future.

Note

Data reported are for financial years, but for the purpose of the trajectory analysis, the financial years are matched to a calendar year by selecting the calendar year in which the financial year ends (for example, 1 July 2010 to 30 June 2011 data are treated as 2011 calendar year data).

Prepared by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW).

Source

AIHW analysis of Youth Justice National Minimum Dataset (YJ NMDS).